A new study anticipates a healthy uptick in available “good jobs” over the next decade. Even though the bulk of those jobs will require baccalaureates, a good chunk will still be open to those who earn an associate degree, certificates, certifications or some college.

By 2031, the number of good jobs in the U.S. will grow to 87.8 million, up 21% from 2021, according to projections by Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce. Most of those jobs — 58.2 million, or 66% — will be on the bachelor’s degree pathway. Nearly 20% (16.4 million) will be on the middle-skills pathway, which is the pathway for which most community colleges prepare students. About 15% of the new good jobs will require at least a high school diploma.

The figures represent an increase for good jobs along baccalaureate paths (up from 59% in 2021) and a decrease for both the middle-skills pathway (down from 22%) and for the high schools pathway (down from 19%). Still, more than half of jobs (52%) within the middle-skills pathway are pegged as good jobs — which is the same rate as in 2021. Good jobs within the baccalaureate pathway increased by one percentage point to 79%, while those along the high schools pathway decreased two-percentage points to 36%.

The study defines good jobs as paying at least $43,000 and having a median of $74,000 for workers ages 25 to 44, and at least $55,000 with a median of $91,000 for workers ages 45 to 64.

What’s driving growth

Despite comprising a smaller share of good-paying jobs, the middle-skills pathways still provide plenty of opportunity. Various factors are fueling good jobs growth, especially among middle-skills jobs, the study notes. An increase in retirements among workers and a slowed population growth will constrict the workforce pipeline, which will prompt employers to seek more employees with middle-skills education and training, the report says.

Efforts among a growing number of state governments and companies to set middle-skills credentials for various jobs is also contributing to the growth, as is federal investment in infrastructure, clean energy and semiconductor manufacturing that is expected to create jobs in transportation, construction and extraction, maintenance and repair, semiconductor manufacturing, electric vehicle production and repair and more — most of which will require middle skills.

Specific occupations

The growth among middle-skills jobs will include both professional white-collar occupations and traditional blue-collar occupations, the study says. The largest bump is expected to happen in construction and extraction jobs — due largely to federal infrastructure investment — adding some 893,000 new good jobs between 2021 and 2031.

The second largest increase for the middle-skills pathway — netting 291,000 new good jobs — will be in computer and mathematical science occupations, the study says. This is due, in part, to growing opportunities for workers with certificates and certifications in the technology field, according to the study, noting as an example Google’s certificate offerings for in-demand jobs for workers without college degrees.

The sector expected to see the most significant drop in good jobs along the middle-skills pathway is management occupations, the study says, noting an anticipated decrease of 467,000 good jobs. The reason is management occupations will become more complex, with an increase in using data in decision-making, which will require a bachelor’s degree or higher.

The study noted technology such as generative AI might also become a factor by enabling middle-skill workers to move into roles that previously would not have been available to them.

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